National Records of Scotland

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Administrative Data Based Population Estimates, Scotland 2016 - 2018 - Statistical Research

Administrative Data Based Population Estimates, Scotland 2016 - 2018 - Statistical Research

Last update: 14 December 2021

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Quality Assurance of Administrative Data
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Voluntary Statement
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Disclaimer: These statistical research outputs are not the OFFICIAL STATISTICS for Population Estimates for Scotland. The Official Statistics can be found in the statistics and data section of National Records of Scotland’s website.
This publication reports on the results of research into how population estimates might be produced using a range of administrative data.

Any presentation or use of these research outputs should make clear to users the nature and purpose of the statistics.

Key Findings:

The aim of this statistical research is to create population estimates using only a range of administrative data. This research is part of the evidence base to support future developments in Scotland’s demographic statistics.

This research is compared with the National Statistics Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYE), which start by using the latest census population estimates and then adjust for future years using data on births, deaths and migration. MYE are published by the National Records of Scotland each year.

  • The ABPE for Scotland are higher than the published MYE for 2016 and 2018, and very similar to the MYE for 2017.
  • For all three years, the ABPE has more males than the MYE. In 2016 and 2018 the differences between the ABPE and MYE are larger for males than for females.
  • Different age ranges show different patterns, although these patterns are roughly consistent over the three years:
    • For young adults (aged around 18–25) the ABPE are generally higher than the MYE for females, and lower for males
    • For those aged 30–65 there is little difference between the ABPE and MYE for females, but for males the ABPE is notably higher
    • For those aged 67+ the ABPE for females and males are both lower than the MYE
  • The ABPE is generally higher than the MYE in the most-deprived areas, and lower in the least-deprived areas. There is a higher difference between ABPE and MYE for males in the most-deprived areas. This is consistent throughout council areas, and in each of the three years. Males in the age range of 30–59 show the largest percentage differences.
  • The ABPE is generally higher than the MYE in urban areas, and lower in rural areas.

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